UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 658 - DECEMBER 12, 2023

According to US intelligence assessments, Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in the fall of 2023 and the upcoming winter are aimed at weakening Western support for Ukraine rather than achieving immediate operational objectives.

Reports indicate that US intelligence agencies informed Congress on December 12 about a released intelligence assessment, stating that Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine were aimed at weakening Western support for Ukraine but had only resulted in high Russian casualties and no operationally significant Russian victories on the battlefield. This assessment of high Russian casualties and the lack of operationally significant Russian gains aligns with the assessment of the ISW. US National Security Council spokesperson Andrienne Watson stated that Russian forces had suffered more than 13,000 casualties and lost 220 combat vehicles since the start of the offensive operations in October 2023 along the Avdiivka-Novopavlivka axis (towards Avdiivka through the western Donetsk Oblast).

Watson added that Russia seems to believe that a military "standstill" during the winter would erode Western support for Ukraine and give Russian forces an advantage despite high Russian casualties and the ongoing Russian shortages of trained personnel, ammunition, and equipment. The ISW believes that Russian forces have been trying to regain the initiative in Ukraine since at least mid-November 2023, and are now likely to conduct offensive operations in multiple sectors of the front during the most challenging weather conditions of the fall-winter season in order to seize and maintain the initiative.

The full Russian Offensive Update 658 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR