UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 409 - APRIL 6, 2023

The Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and the Russian President Vladimir Putin met on April 5th and 6th in Moscow to discuss further integration of the Union State, with Putin focusing on strengthening Russian economic control over Belarus.

Putin and Lukashenko met for a personal conversation on April 5th and participated in a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State on April 6th to discuss integration efforts in the areas of security, economy, defense, culture, and humanitarian affairs. Putin claimed that Russian and Belarusian officials had fulfilled 74 percent of the 28 Union State programs and highlighted the creation of a common system for indirect taxes, measures to establish common standards for Russian and Belarusian industrial enterprises, and efforts to harmonize Belarusian and Russian trade legislation. Both Putin and Lukashenko noted that Russian and Belarusian officials are focusing on import substitution measures (likely to mitigate Western sanctions) and support for the microelectronics industry. Putin stated that Russian and Belarusian officials are continuing the process of creating a common oil and gas market and working on drafting an agreement for a unified electricity market.

The Kremlin is likely to continue its longstanding efforts to take over parts of the Belarusian Defense Industry (DIB), and both states are likely to leverage their Union State economic integration efforts to enhance their ongoing sanctions evasion actions. Putin and Lukashenko probably also emphasized strengthening economic cooperation to support their ongoing efforts to deceive the Russian and Belarusian public into believing that Western sanction regulations will not have long-term consequences.

Russian commanders are reportedly building specialized company-sized units in key frontline formations that will be deployed in urban combat to compensate for the reduced combat effectiveness of most Russian units. Russian forces are likely to deploy these "Storm Z" units along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.

The complete Russian Offensive Update 409 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR online