UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 387 - MARCH 15, 2023

The overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine seems to have decreased compared to the past weeks.

A spokesman for the Ukrainian Joint Press Center of the Tavriisker Armed Forces, Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, stated on March 15 that Russian offensive actions have significantly decreased in the past week, noting that daily Russian ground attacks have decreased from 90 to 100 attacks per day to 20 to 29 per day. Dmytrashkivskyi therefore believes that the Russian forces have lost some offensive potential due to significant personnel and equipment losses.

Dmytrashkivskyi's statements align with ISW's general observation regarding the pace of Russian operations along the entire frontline in Ukraine. The Russian offensive operation in the Luhansk region is likely nearing its peak, if it has not already reached it, even though Russia has deployed most elements of at least three divisions along the Svatove-Kreminna line. Along the entire frontline in the Luhansk region, Russian forces have made minimal tactical progress in the past week, while Ukrainian forces have recently been able to conduct counterattacks and regain areas in the Luhansk region.

ISW was unable to confirm the deployment of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division (1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District) in the offensive in the Luhansk region, as reports suggest that certain, unspecified units were moved to the Luhansk region in January - the only large formation assessed as ready for deployment but apparently not yet deployed. It is unclear whether the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division has already been deployed and not recognized, or whether it is waiting to be moved to either the Luhansk region or other areas of the frontline. However, it is unlikely that the deployment of two or three regiments of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division will significantly delay or reverse the peak of the Russian offensive in the Luhansk region, especially considering that at least five Russian regiments have been definitively deployed in this area, likely along with several others, although Russian forces are still unable to make significant progress.

The full Russian Offensive Update 387 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR online