UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 278 - NOVEMBER 26, 2022

The overall pace of operations along the front line has slowed in recent days due to deteriorating weather conditions, but is expected to increase in the coming weeks as temperatures drop and the ground freezes across the area.

Ukrainian and Russian reports from critical front areas across eastern and southern Ukraine, including Svatove, Bakhmut, and Vuhledar, indicate that operations on both sides are currently being hindered by heavy rain and resulting heavy mud. A temperature drop is forecasted in Ukraine for the next week, which will cause the ground to freeze again and accelerate the pace of fighting as mobility on both sides increases. In the northeastern regions of Ukraine, such as along the Svatove-Kreminna line, temperatures are expected to drop to daytime highs approaching or below freezing between November 28 and December 4. The ground will likely need several days of consistent freezing temperatures to solidify, meaning that ground conditions will be such that the pace of operations can increase across Ukraine over the weekend of December 3-4 and in the following week.

It is unclear if either side is actively planning or preparing for the resumption of major offensive or counteroffensive operations at this time, but the meteorological factors that have hindered such operations in the past will abate.

The full Russian Offensive Update 278 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

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