A new caliphate?

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The news (at least some) surprises with the report that the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has declared that it is now simply the "Islamic State" and that its Emir, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, is now Khalif Ibrahim - the new caliph and direct successor of Mohammed. Here is an excerpt from the ISIS statement, reproduced after the German translation published by ISIS itself (hence the Arabic "transliteration" of certain terms: Šūrā - Shura (Council); Hilāfah - Caliphate; Mugāhid - Mujahideen (Warriors of God); etc.):

“The Šūrā, the Council of the Islamic State studied this matter after the Islamic State, by Allah's Grace, acquired the essence and the necessity of the Ḫilāfah, which is sinful for the Muslims if they do not try to establish it. Considering the fact that the Islamic State Šarʿī has no barrier or excuse that justifies delaying the establishment of the Ḫilāfah without being sinful. The Islamic State represented by the Ahl-ul-Hall-i-wal-Aqd, consisting of senior figures, leaders and the Shura Council have decided to proclaim the establishment of the Islamic Ḫalīfah.

The appointment of the Ḫalīfah for the Muslims and the oath of allegiance to the Šayḫ, the Muğāhid, the Scholar, who put into practice what he preached, the ʿĀbid, the Leader, the Warrior, the Mujaddid, originating from the family of the Prophet, a servant of Allah, Ibrāhīm Ibn ʿAwwād Ibn Ibrāhīm Ibn ʿAlī Ibn Muḥammad al-Badrī al-Ḥāshimī al-Ḥusaynī al-Qurašī his lineage, born and raised in as-Sāmurrāʿī, al-Baġdādī his residence and study. And he has accepted the Bayʿah (oath of allegiance). He is the Imām and the Ḫalīfah for every Muslim. The mention of 'Iraq and the Levant (al-ʿIrāq wa al-Šām)' in the name of the Islamic State will be removed from all official mentions and communications from now on and the official name from the day of declaration is: 'Islamic State'.

We emphasize to the Muslims that with this declaration of the Ḫilāfah, it is mandatory for every Muslim to pledge allegiance to the Khalifah Ibrahim and support him (may Allah protect him). The legitimacy of all Emirates, groups, states and organizations becomes void with the expansion of the authority of the Ḫilāfah and the arrival of the troops in their place.

Imām Aḥmad raḥimahu llāhu said, as reported by ʿAbdūs Ibn Mālik al-ʿAṭṭār: “It is not permissible for anyone who believes in Allah to sleep without considering that his leader is the one who conquers him with the sword until he becomes a Ḫalīfah and he is called Amīr-ul-Muʾminīn (the leader of the believers), whether the leader is just or sinful.”

Some commentators have concluded that this would be a significant event that changes the course of events. Terror analyst Charles Lister, for example, believes that the declaration of the caliphate is "the most significant development in international jihadism since 9/11" .

But let's take a closer look at the details. Because this is not the first grandiose claim that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has made. The bloody feud between ISIS and the rival Al Nusra Front began when Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi unilaterally established the "Islamic State in Iraq," even while still belonging to Al Nusra under his leadership. Al Nusra fought him, even defeated him at times, and he may have even been expelled from Al Qaeda by Ayman al-Zawahiri. In the months since, the fighting between Al Nusra and ISIS has not diminished, their feud seems as deadly as ever. There are also no signs of coordination with the Islamic Front, the "umbrella" organization of seven rebel groups in Syria, which is as extremely Islamist as ISIS. In general, it was assumed that Osama Bin Laden would be declared caliph if the USA ever collapsed. That never happened, of course, but it was intended to ...

Al-Baghdadi (also known as Abu Du'a - in the image above presumably the first current photo of him) is not the first Islamist leader whose megalomania is enough to claim direct succession to Mohammed. Mullah Mohammed Omar, the one-eyed leader of the Taliban, declared himself Amir al-Mu'minin, the "Leader of the Believers" in 1996 and put on what was supposed to be Mohammed's cloak in Kandahar. Of course, Mullah Omar did not attract as much attention from the world public as Abu Du'a does now. ISIS has scored a remarkable success in northern Iraq in recent weeks. But beyond the element of surprise, part of the success was due to betrayal by parts of the Iraqi military leadership (according to reports, the commanding general of Mosul is still in office there, but under the ISIS flag) and moreover, disputes within the Iraqi Special Forces (ISF) based on tribal and religious differences (Sunnite soldiers who do not want to fight other Sunnites for a predominantly Shiite government that perpetually marginalizes the Sunni minority, and Shiite soldiers who are not willing to risk their lives for Sunni cities).

The element of surprise was already lost when the ISF counteroffensive began in Tikrit, Samarra, and Tal Afar. ISIS simply does not have as many fighters as the weakened ISF does, especially when the Shiite majority in the country begins to mobilize. The Shiite leaders Sistani and Sadr have called on the population to take up arms (presumably the first time both clerics have been on the same side). The ISIS column that marched to Mosul in early June was estimated to have 1,500 fighters. Even with a resolute call before them, a smaller force cannot achieve much against concentrated resistance. One must also consider their ongoing bloody rivalry with other rebels in Syria, the Syrian government as an opponent, and the influence of the Hezbollah, making it difficult for ISIS. A spokesperson for ISIS, Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, declared: "The legality of the emirates, groups, states, and organizations is null and void as the authority of the caliphate expands and its troops approach. Obey your caliph and respect him. Support your state, which is growing every day." Looking at the overstretched ISIS forces, this statement mixes a slight tone of desperation with a healthy dose of grandiosity. Is Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi trying to win morally what he cannot take by force, by claiming the mantle of Mohammed?

Those who react to the proclamation of the caliphate as if a new empire of evil has emerged are stuck on the surface and ignore the key points of the current situation. Just like some of the Caesars of the late Roman Empire, al-Baghdadi can declare what he wants, as long as he cannot put something real behind it, it is just a gasping claim. It remains to be seen whether he can maintain the goals achieved or not. He is more engaged in a battle against mortal enemies on both sides of the religious divide than in establishing an empire.

PETER NEALEN is a former Reconnaissance Marine and Iraq and Afghanistan veteran. The article first appeared on the US Special Operations Network SOFREP.com.

Reprinted with kind permission from SOFREP.com

The ISIS propaganda department emphasizes that now only the first border has fallen. They see the modern map of the Middle East as a result of colonialism. The struggle of the Mujahideen is post-national and actually a theologically motivated world war of "good against evil". In the video, a Chilean Mujahid is allowed to explain the overcoming of the border post between Iraq and Syria. At the same time, other videos are intended to attract more international fighters. The Islamic State urgently needs more troops to maintain its liberated zone.