Martin van Creveld: A new Thirty Years' War?

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We published this article by Martin van Creveld here on SPARTANAT in 2015. For a current reason, we are bringing it back again: Syria, Iraq, and the Islamic State (IS) at war, and for a long time now, the whole world – USA, Russia, France, Great Britain – has been involved in the Middle East region. And the development seems to be escalating faster and further.Martin van Creveld, one of the world's leading military historians, describes the beginning of a probable long-lasting and far-reaching conflict on SPARTANAT:

For those of you who have forgotten, here is a brief summary: The Thirty Years' War began in May 1618 when Protestant princes of Bohemia revolted against the Catholic Emperor Ferdinand II. They threw his envoys out of the windows of a palace in Prague. Luckily, they fell into a ditch filled with garbage, and no one died.

If the uprising had remained local, it would probably have been suppressed fairly quickly. As it actually was in 1620 when the Habsburgs and their allies won the Battle of White Mountain. But instead, it grew and grew. First, the Hungarians and Ottomans were involved (though not for long). Then came the Spaniards, followed by the Danes, then the Swedes, and finally the French. Some got more involved, others less. Many small states, cities, and more or less independent robber barons engaged their own militias and participated in what became a wild free-for-all. For over three decades, armies and militias chased each other through Central Europe. Looting, burning, raping, killing. When the Peace of Westphalia ended the hostilities in 1648, the population of Germany had been reduced by an estimated third.

The similarities between the Thirty Years' War and the current war in Syria are obvious and alarming. It also began with a revolt against a repressive ruler and his regime.

The similarities with the current war in Syria are obvious and alarming. This war also began with a revolt against an oppressive ruler and his regime. One who, as gruesome as he could be, had more or less everything under control in all cases. Initially, only various "democratic" Syrian factions– assuming that such a thing even exists– were affected, trying to overthrow Bashar Assad. However, it turned out that some of these groups were not democratic but Islamic, part of a much larger movement that actually originated in Iraq and was known there under abbreviations like IS or Daesh. Furthermore, Hezbollah– in a sense an extended arm of Assad and Iran, supported by both against Israel– was drawn into the conflict. Hezbollah provided the fighters, while others provided training and weapons.

And that was just the beginning. The Kurds, whose territory also extends into Syria and Iraq, have now caught the scent of blood and are trying to seize the opportunity to gain independence. This necessarily draws the Turks into the conflict. Only in this way can they prevent their own Kurds from joining their brethren. Ankara has started bombing them. To appease Obama, they have also dropped a few bombs on the IS. The USA, in turn, has begun training some of the "liberal" militias, with no benefit. The US trainers did no better in Syria than their predecessors did in Vietnam, Lebanon, Afghanistan, and Iraq. What remains remarkable is that they and their bosses in the White House never learn.

With so many interests involved– both their own and foreign– a way out seems nowhere in sight. The outcome cannot be predicted in any way, just like at the beginning of the Thirty Years' War.

Next, the United States plunged into the fray on their own. Always afraid of losses, there is an increasing number of drone strikes, which are more or less useless. The Russians, determined to not lose their last remaining base outside their own country and to keep Assad in power, began airstrikes against some, but not all, militias. The French, only God knows what they wanted to achieve with this, did the same. (Editor's note: Even before the recent attacks in Paris.) The conflict is further fueled by the Saudis, who simply oppose anything supported by the Iranians. Too afraid to use their own useless army, they try to get rid of Assad by massively supporting his enemies.

With so many interests involved– both their own and foreign– a way out seems nowhere in sight. The outcome cannot be predicted in any way, just like four years after the beginning of the Thirty Years' War, in 1622. In fact, there are good reasons to believe that the conflict has only just begun. Additional players such as Lebanon and Jordan could still be drawn in. This would, almost certainly, involve Israel. Some right-wing Israelis, including some ministers, even dream of such a scenario. They hope that the fall of the Hashemite dynasty and the collapse of Jordan will give them the opportunity to repeat the events of 1948 and expel the Palestinians from the West Bank and drive them into Jordan.

As it stands now, the biggest losers will be Syria and Iraq. The main victims will be– as they were from 1618-1648– the civilian population.

However, that is still in the future, as they say in Germany. As it stands now, the biggest losers will be Syria and Iraq. They no longer exist as organized entities, and they do not seem to have any future as a collective whole. The biggest winner will be Iran. The mullahs can play the role that Cardinal Richelieu had in the 17th century, the great French statesman. They oversee the whole region from the Persian Gulf to Latakia on the eastern Mediterranean, as it turns into a whirlpool of competing interests they can play with. And they don't mind seeing the Turks and the Kurds killing each other over their respective issues.

The main victims will be– as they were from 1618-1648– the civilian population. As in the Thirty Years' War, people will be robbed, plundered, and killed. As from 1618-48, the slave trade– particularly of marriageable women who can be raped, but also of young men who can be conscripted– will experience a new flourishing. And not only in Syria but also in Iraq, where the IS fights against the local Kurds and those disparate units that the "Iraqi" army can still muster. Therefore, the number of refugees trying to escape will go into the millions. Many who have nothing left to lose will risk their lives and try at all costs to come to Europe. Together with some from Libya and others from Africa, some of them will join the Salafists there, an extreme Muslim sect that is already very active in the continent's cities. Some of these, in turn, will turn into terrorists. Terrorism, unable to be controlled, will find its response not only in extremism, the loss of civil rights, and the decline of democracy– which are already happening– but in terrorism.

And who will they all blame? Israel, of course. But we Israelis and Jews are already used to that...

MARTIN VAN CREVELD, one of the foremost military historians of our time, was born in Holland in 1946. Since 1950, he has lived in Israel. He studied at the London School of Economics and the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, where he has been a history professor since 1971. Books include "Fighting Power," "Faces of War," "The Sword and the Olive," "Rise and Decline of the State,"... Also works as a military advisor and speaker throughout the Western world.

Martin van Creveld on the Internet: www.martin-van-creveld.com

All illustrations show contemporary scenes from the Thirty Years' War (1618-1648)