BLACKOUT (3): Land without power - Possible causes for a blackout

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What can happen was observed in Turkey on March 31, 2015. At 10 o'clock in the morning, the power went out in 80 out of 81 Turkish provinces, affecting nearly 80 million people. Initially, a cyber attack was suspected as the cause, as the website of the state electricity grid operator had reportedly been hacked shortly before. Public transportation came to a standstill, traffic lights went out, and an incredible traffic chaos ensued. The total economic damage amounted to around 700 million euros. It was later assured that fluctuations in the Turkish power grid had caused the blackout.

On November 4, 2006, on the other hand, the lights went out due to human error. A coordination mistake at 10:10 p.m. led to a large-scale power outage in Europe. The trigger was a poorly planned and insufficiently communicated shutdown of high-voltage lines in Lower Saxony for the departure of a cruise ship. This led to multiple lines going offline. About 15 million people in Germany, France, Belgium, Italy, Austria, and Spain were without electrical energy for up to 2 hours.

The list could go on indefinitely. It shows that a blackout is indeed within the realm of possibility and could affect any region, country, or even the entire continent. Austria has been spared from a major blackout so far, aside from minor regional outages, which were mostly weather-related. However, experts warn that larger outages could occur at any time due to the following reasons:

1. System Collapse - Insufficient Network Stability

The electricity consumption of Austrians has been steadily increasing for decades. In general, Austria has enough power plants to meet demand, but in recent years, some power plants have been closed or decommissioned due to lack of profitability. Thermal power plants are ready for emergencies and can be switched on if necessary.

The concern lies with the aging power grid. The Austrian transmission network dates back to the middle of the last century. Since then, not only has consumption significantly increased, but also the liberalization of the electricity market has put a considerable strain on the networks. Germany is Austria's main electricity supplier.

As a result, the power grid is operating at its limits. According to Gerhard Christiner, technical director of the Austrian transmission system operator APG, the network is simply not designed to handle today's import situation. The network operation can only be maintained through sophisticated bottleneck management (EPM), with old Austrian gas power plants regularly having to step in on short notice - which is inefficient and costly.

In recent years, such inevitable interventions in the system have increased. Particularly since 2015, there has been a significant rise in these so-called redispatch measures.

Expansion of the transmission network is therefore urgently needed. Specifically, the north-south connections are already heavily burdened. "The 380 kV line in Salzburg is the key project. This missing infrastructure is already costing the national economy ten million euros per month - we all pay for this through the network tariffs," says Christiner in an interview with Addendum.

In addition to network expansion, Christiner also sees the switch to renewable energy sources as inevitable. Higher prices for environmentally harmful electricity production could also be considered, such as a CO₂ tax. However, he emphasizes the need to view the situation holistically. It is not just about producing cleaner electricity, but also about having the necessary networks in place to transport it to where it is needed, such as from northern Germany to the south or from eastern Austria to the west.

This raises another issue, electricity overproduction, which attractive feed-in tariffs for electricity from renewable sources have accelerated, leading to lower CO₂ emissions. However, this sector also experiences stronger fluctuations, known as volatility. Sometimes there is more wind, or fewer hours of sunshine. Transmission networks are increasingly struggling with such problems.

If electricity production and consumption do not match and this gap is not closed, a blackout can occur. According to Florian Maringer, managing director of Renewable Energy Austria, the risk of such an event is currently relatively low. But, as Gerhard Christiner points out: "The margin has become very narrow. We are living off the substance of our forefathers. In this transitional phase, we will need the current stock of Austrian gas power plants as a network reserve. But we are increasingly depleting our reserves, especially in the network area. More coordinated expansion is needed here."

2. Cyber-Attacks and Terrorist Attacks

Another potential threat is cyber-attacks and terrorist attacks. For example, on December 23, 2015, hundreds of thousands of people in 103 cities in Ukraine were left without power, as 27 substations went offline. IT security experts believe that a cyber-attack triggered the power outage. This assessment is shared by security firms from the US and Ukraine as well as the Federal Office for Information Security in Bonn. While this incident could not be proven, it demonstrates that cyber-attacks on energy suppliers may no longer be mere fiction.

The vulnerability of the power grid is exacerbated by digitalization (e.g., "digital substations"). On March 17, 2018, US Homeland Security spokespeople reported that Russia had attempted to infiltrate the US energy grid. The hackers had even left traces to demonstrate their skills. Specialists believe that "the enemy is already within the system, and sabotage can be unleashed as needed. The new warfare means that a handful of people in Europe can turn off the lights." Hacker attacks are also often accompanied by extortion attempts.

3. Natural Disasters

Severe thunderstorms, floods, and storms can damage power grids and cause malfunctions, as can freezing rain, heavy snowfall, extreme cold, or heat. The same goes for elemental events such as avalanches, mudslides, rockfalls, or earthquakes.

For example, a storm on November 25, 2005, plunged western Germany into a snow chaos. In Münsterland and parts of the Ruhr area, many areas were cut off from electricity, leaving over 250,000 people affected by this blackout. Some had no power for up to three days, and individual farms were without power for up to five days. In some regions, road, rail, and air traffic collapsed completely.

4. Geomagnetic Storms

Not only "classic" storms can be problematic, but solar winds also pose a threat. These are caused by plasma eruptions and take between 24 and 36 hours to reach Earth. When this wave hits Earth, it distorts the Earth's magnetic field, causing a geomagnetic storm. The intense fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field induce currents in unprotected electrical lines. This can destroy satellites, transformers of high-voltage lines, and electronic devices. A severe storm would cause enormous damage and could disrupt power supply on a large scale for months.

5. The E-Bomb

An attack on the power supply is also possible with a so-called E-bomb. This emits a high-frequency electromagnetic pulse that renders any electronically operated device in its range instantly useless. The bomb rivaling the destructive power of a lightning strike: A lightning discharge releases currents of 30,000 amperes, while the E-bomb is said to be a million amperes.

Since 1979, the US military has been researching the generation and use of strong electromagnetic pulses. The idea originated from nuclear bomb tests in the early 1960s. During the detonation of nuclear warheads in the upper atmosphere, the military observed a strong accompanying gamma radiation that had a lasting and devastating effect on all electrical devices. Nuclear blackout entered the vocabulary as an EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) under the shadow of the Cold War.

As part of the "Counter-electronics High Power Microwave Advanced Missile Project" (CHAMP), allegedly successfully tested in 2012, the USA is developing smaller precision EMP weapons.

6. Human Error

Switching errors in substations, as well as miscalculations in shutdowns, are additional possible scenarios for a blackout caused by human error.

On the night of September 28, 2003, Italy suddenly went dark. At 3:27 a.m., the power went out throughout the country, lasting up to 18 hours in some regions. The cause was a network problem in Switzerland, where a power line was overloaded due to a human misjudgment and failed. This resulted in 57 million people in Italy being without electricity for hours.

The power supply is based on systems that are prone to errors due to their complexity. It will be challenging to eliminate all possible causes permanently, so a blackout is indeed possible. It is important to be prepared for such an event.

ADDENDUM Series on Blackout in Austria:

The Introduction on SPARTANAT: Austria is Preparing for a Blackout

Part 1: It will be very difficult to maintain control

Part 2: Nothing works anymore - the impacts of a blackout

Part 3: Land Without Power - Possible Causes for a Blackout

This article was first published on ADDENDUM. Copyright Text: ADDENDUM. Images: ADDENDUM. Video contributions, graphics, and audio contributions: ADDENDUM.

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